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2026 midterm primaries begin with key races in Texas and North Carolina
Welcome to the start of the 2026 US midterms. Primary elections kick off in three states – Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas – and many seats are at stake, including candidacies for the US House and US Senate.
Tuesday’s results will determine who is on the ballot in November in these states. Voters are heading to the polls to select who they want to represent their registered party. There are dozens of elections, but Guardian is specifically watching a handful of races closely:
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In Texas, longtime Republican senator John Cornyn is fighting to retain his seat against two challengers: state attorney general Ken Paxton and US representative Wesley Hunt. Paxton, a conservative firebrand who has surged in recent polls, could reveal to the Republican party just how potent the Maga brand is.
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The Texas Democratic primary for US Senate is between US representative Jasmine Crockett and state representative James Talarico, a race that is seen as a strategic divide – their campaign styles could not be more different.
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North Carolina’s primaries could prove crucial to Democrats come November, as Republican senator Thom Tillis is retiring and they believe this is a major chance to flip a seat in the chamber. On the Democrats’ side, former two-term governor Roy Cooper is ahead in recent polling. Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, leads the Republican field.
And while president Donald Trump is not on the ballot tonight or in November, these elections will be used as a bellwether for his policies and how voters have viewd the first year of his second term.
Right now, Republicans hold the House, the Senate and the presidency. Will US voters look to retain the status quo or change course? Stick with us as we take you through election night.
Key events
What about Arkansas?
Arkansas has primary elections tonight too, however, this deep red state does not expect to offer much in terms of tight races or surprise outcomes.
Republican incumbents, including US senator Tom Cotton and governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, are heavy favorites to win their primaries. Cotton is seeking his third term and the governor is running unopposed.
The Associated Press notes that Arkansas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 2010, and Sanders and Cotton will be heavy favorites to win re-election in November.
Some voters turned away in two major Texas counties due to rule changes
Some voters in two major Texas counties are being turned away at polling locations and directed to different voting precincts, causing confusion and frustration, the Associated Press reported. The problems were hitting voters in Dallas and Williamson counties, which includes the suburbs north of Austin.
“We’re seeing a lot of people that are going to their vote centers that they usually go to … and not realizing they can’t do that anymore. They have to go to their precinct-based location,” Nic Solorzano, a spokesperson for the Dallas County Elections Department, told the AP.
Voters have been allowed to cast their ballot anywhere in their respective county since 2019. But for this primary, Republicans in both counties opted against this. And because both major parties have to agree on how to conduct the primary, the decision affects all voters.
North Carolina election results will be delayed due to tech issues in one county
North Carolina’s election results will be delayed at least an hour because a rural county will be open late after workers couldn’t get equipment working earlier in the day.
In Halifax county, the electronic poll books synchronized for 90 minutes and didn’t use any backup measures to let people vote, according to notes from an emergency meeting held by the state’s board of elections.
Election officials said counties can go ahead and count votes when their polls close and report the results internally to the state, the Associated Press reported. But the state isn’t releasing vote totals publicly until 8.30 pm, when the Halifax county precinct closes.
Journalist Jimmy Ryals spoke to several North Carolina voters about how the recent US attack on Iran affected their decision as they head to polls in Nash county at Bailey Baptist Church.
Here’s what they said:
Brenda Patterson is an unaffiliated voter but participated in the Republican primary. The fighting in Iran is on her mind. She opposes US involvement, but it didn’t affect her voting choices. More important, she says, are improving the economy and “getting over some of the riots that are happening in some of these cities.”
“I don’t like war at all,” she said. “We’d been independent on oil for a while, but all of a sudden (domestic) pipelines are closed, and now we’re going back to getting oil and stuff from the Middle East.”
Angela Iwaniuk is a registered Democrat for primaries “but when it comes to the real thing, I vote for who I think will be the best.” Iran was not a significant factor in her voting choices, although it does concern her. She has friends on a tour of Israel who can’t get home now.
“I hate that it’s happening,” she said. “But I think it’s a good thing that we’re doing what we’re doing. I’m in favor of it.”
Nancy Stone, of Wilson, North Carolina, is an unaffiliated voter in the Republican primary. She is following what’s happening in Iran and favors US actions alongside Israel, but she says it didn’t affect her vote.
Yamilka Almeyda of Greenville, North Carolina, is a registered Democrat. For Almeyda, a pediatrician, healthcare is the most important issue facing the country and Iran detracts from it.
“I’ve been here for 18 years and never seen a situation like what we’re facing,” she said. “I feel like Iran is a distraction from our internal problems. I think this war is unnecessary.”
At the heart of one North Carolina primary race: datacenter politics
Dharna Noor
A North Carolina congressional primary on Tuesday is an early test of datacenter politics – a fight increasingly shaping elections nationwide.
In the Durham-area fourth district, congresswoman Valerie Foushee is seeking her third term against progressive challenger Nida Allam, a Durham county commissioner she defeated in 2022.
The heated rematch comes against the backdrop of a major datacenter battle in the district. Allam has come out staunchly against a massive new proposed facility, and is supporting a federal datacenter moratorium. Foushee, meanwhile, said she does not personally support the new development, but that datacenter decisions should be left to local leaders, not federal ones.
In North Carolina, all eyes on key Senate and House races
George Chidi
The marquee matchup for the open US Senate seat in North Carolina will begin to resolve into focus Tuesday, with a well-known former Democratic governor and a Donald Trump-endorsed but untested Republican appearing to lead the field.
In the Democratic primary, former two-term governor Roy Cooper is ahead in recent polling against the slate of other candidates who have never held elected office. Cooper is widely seen among North Carolina’s Democrats as their best chance at flipping a Republican-controlled seat, now held by retiring US senator Thom Tillis, a conservative who has turned hard against the Trump administration on its handling of healthcare, defense and the Epstein file disclosures.
For Republicans, Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, leads the field in polling, with his closest competitor, representative Don Brown, in the single digits.
Polling in both primaries has been relatively scant and may have masked softness in conservative support for Whatley. About half of the Republican electorate remains undecided as they head to the polls.
Lauren Gambino
I’m in Austin, where later tonight James Talarico’s campaign will hold its election night event.
The evening will cap a remarkable rise to national prominence for Texas state representative Talarico, who launched a Senate bid promising a “new kind of politics” that roots progressive policy in his Christian faith.
A 36-year-old former school teacher and seminary student, Talarico first splashed onto the national political stage during a walkout last year, when Democratic lawmakers fled the state to delay a Republican gerrymander sought by Donald Trump.
He is seen as the underdog in the primary race against congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, a progressive firebrand beloved by the anti-Trump resistance.
More than anything, the race is a test of style, personality and playbooks. The Democrats broadly agree on policy – and both will face an uphill battle to win the general election in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
Polling diverges for Texas Democrats as Crockett loses early lead in closing weeks
Lauren Gambino
House representative Jasmine Crockett enjoyed an early lead in the Democratic race, with polls showing the congresswoman comfortably ahead of state representative James Talarico. But in the final weeks, as early voting got underway and Talarico enjoyed a boost in fundraising after a pulled appearance on the “Late Night With Stephen Colbert” went viral online, polls have diverged significantly. Some show Talarico leaping ahead of Crockett, while others show her firmly in first place.
One constant, however, is that Crockett draws overwhelming support from Black Democrats, while Talarico has consistently led among white liberals.
The outcome will likely be decided by Latino voters, who are expected to account for a quarter to one-third of the Democratic primary electorate.
Early voting shows sky-high enthusiasm on the Democratic side, with record-breaking turnout. At a polling station on the University of Texas campus in Austin, the line snaked through the student union building and out the door. Campaign signs for Crockett – Texas Tough – and Talarico lined a central campus thoroughway.
A poll worker announced that the wait was over 50 minutes. She directed anyone who’d rather not wait in the midday heat to take a free shuttle to another voting center with a shorter wait time.
Lauren Gambino
Texas voters are casting ballots for a slate of other federal, state and local offices.
As a result of redistricting, two sitting members of Congress are squaring off in the primary for congressional district 18, in what has become a referendum on generational change.
Among Democrats, representative Christian Menefee, 37, who is just weeks into his first term, is now facing off against representative Al Green, 78, who has served for more than two decades.
On the Republican side, representative Dan Crenshaw is potentially vulnerable to a right-wing challenge from state representative Steve Toth in the second congressional district while congressman Tony Gonzales is facing calls for his resignation from fellow Republicans after allegations of an affair with a former staffer who later killed herself. He has resisted calls to resign.
What to know about the Texas Democratic Senate primary
On the Democratic side of the Texas Senate primary, two rising stars in the party are going head to head with completely different playbooks.
US House representative Jasmine Crockett, the Associated Press notes, has made a name for herself through confrontation. She is a fierce critic of president Donald Trump. My colleague Lauren Gambino writes, “Casting herself as a ‘proven fighter’ who ‘drives the president crazy’, Crockett contends that high turnout among young voters and voters of color – not ideological moderation – is the key to winning statewide.”
Competing against her is Texas state representative James Talarico. While he might not have clout in Washington, he has surged in the latest polls off his moderate, God-loving approach that could work specifically in a state like Texas. Lauren writes that he has “crisscrossed the deep-red counties that voted for Trump, preaching a ‘politics of love’ that roots progressive policy in the teachings of his Christian faith. The 36-year-old former middle school teacher and current seminary student argues that the central divide in American politics is ‘not left v right’ but ‘top v bottom’ and says Democrats can rebuild trust in rural and suburban communities without abandoning their core values.”
Talarico received more national attention after CBS’ parent company Paramount refused to show his interview on the Stephen Colbert show. A poll from Emerson College released Sunday shows Talarico with a five-point lead over Crockett.
It’s important to note that Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate seat since 1988. Whoever wins the primary will still face a steep uphill battle to victory in November (just ask Beto O’Rourke).
What to know about the Texas Republican Senate primary
Let’s start with perhaps the biggest race of the night: the Texas Republican Senate primary.
The Texas Senate primary has become the most expensive ad campaign on record, according to analysis firm AdImpact, with the GOP establishment candidate’s campaign spending at least $69m of the $122m (this includes both parties). President Donald Trump has, notably, not endorsed a candidate in this race.
US senator John Cornyn is seeking his fifth term for a seat he has held since 2002. Cornyn serves on several Senate committees and was formerly the party’s whip in Washington until 2019. He has been defending himself throughout this campaign as being aligned with the president, but he may be viewed as less-aligned than at least one of his challengers.
Ken Paxton, the Texas state attorney general, is running a fierce campaign against the incumbent senator despite a history of scandals, both political and personal. Paxton has made a name for himself for spearheading conservatives’ legal battles, including trying to overturn the 2020 election results, expanding religion in schools, and partnering with the Trump administration to facilitate deportations. Polling has recently shown Paxton with a narrow lead.
And then there’s House Republican Wesley Hunt, a two-term congressman who may act as more of a divider-of-votes than having an actual chance to win the race. There is a chance he is a second-place finisher.
That said, if no candidate wins a majority, or more than 50%, the top two candidates advance to a primary runoff on 26 May.
2026 midterm primaries begin with key races in Texas and North Carolina
Welcome to the start of the 2026 US midterms. Primary elections kick off in three states – Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas – and many seats are at stake, including candidacies for the US House and US Senate.
Tuesday’s results will determine who is on the ballot in November in these states. Voters are heading to the polls to select who they want to represent their registered party. There are dozens of elections, but Guardian is specifically watching a handful of races closely:
-
In Texas, longtime Republican senator John Cornyn is fighting to retain his seat against two challengers: state attorney general Ken Paxton and US representative Wesley Hunt. Paxton, a conservative firebrand who has surged in recent polls, could reveal to the Republican party just how potent the Maga brand is.
-
The Texas Democratic primary for US Senate is between US representative Jasmine Crockett and state representative James Talarico, a race that is seen as a strategic divide – their campaign styles could not be more different.
-
North Carolina’s primaries could prove crucial to Democrats come November, as Republican senator Thom Tillis is retiring and they believe this is a major chance to flip a seat in the chamber. On the Democrats’ side, former two-term governor Roy Cooper is ahead in recent polling. Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, leads the Republican field.
And while president Donald Trump is not on the ballot tonight or in November, these elections will be used as a bellwether for his policies and how voters have viewd the first year of his second term.
Right now, Republicans hold the House, the Senate and the presidency. Will US voters look to retain the status quo or change course? Stick with us as we take you through election night.
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