IMF hails UK’s budget deficit improvement

Newsflash: The International Monetary Fund has applauded the UK’s progress in reducing its budget deficit last year.

A day after slashing the UK’s growth forecasts, the IMF cited Britain as an example of an major economy which managed to trim its borrowings, after the UK’s deficit fell from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025.

In its latest Fiscal Monitor report, just released at its spring meeting in Washington, the IMF says:

double quotation markIn 2025, the headline deficit for advanced economies excluding the United States held broadly steady at 2.4% of GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio for these economies fell only marginally to 95.3%, effectively unchanged from its 2019 level prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The United Kingdom recorded a notable improvement, reducing its deficit to 5.4% of GDP, with the change driven by tax increases, tax threshold freezes, and the expiration of temporary measures for energy support.

Canada and Japan also posted gains, reflecting spending restraint. These gains were partly offset by the use of some fiscal space by countries with historically strong fiscal positions, such as Korea and The Netherlands.

The IMF is forecasting that the UK’s annual budget deficit will drop to 3.9% of GDP this year, and continue falling until 2031 when it will be 1.6% of GDP, the second-lowest in the G7 after Canada.

In contrast, the US will need revenue and expenditure measures over the medium term to control its deficit, given “the persistence of primary spending and the scale of projected deficits”, the IMF says.

A chart showing government deficit predictions
Photograph: IMF

The Fund also warns Rachel Reeves not to stray from her fiscal rules, saying:

double quotation markIn the United Kingdom, adhering to established spending envelopes while strengthening the efficiency of value-added and property taxes is key to rebuilding buffers.

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IMF: Support on energy or food costs should be ‘targeted and temporary’

The IMF is also warning governments to be careful when providing support to citizens through the cost of living pressures created by the Iran war.

In a blog post to accompany today’s Fiscal Monitor, they say:

double quotation markIf governments decide to help companies and families facing higher energy or food costs, this support should be targeted and temporary, focusing on those most exposed and least able to absorb price increases. Many countries built effective social safety nets during the pandemic; these mechanisms can—and should—be used again.

Countries with “narrow fiscal space” should avoid financing support measures with additional borrowing, the Fund argues, saying:

double quotation markA better approach is to reallocate spending within the same limits and prioritize crisis-related spending (which could be more politically feasible).

The alternative is to lock in higher debt and higher interest costs, which will eventually force tougher choices—or worse, destabilize government debt markets and worsen conditions today.

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