Russia willing to strike Black Sea deal in possible move towards peace if US orders Ukraine to respect arrangement – Europe live | World news

Russia ready to strike new Black Sea deal if Washington ‘orders’ Zelenskyy to respect it, Lavrov claims

We’re getting more lines from Russia on its talks with the US over the weekend and on Monday.

Reuters is reporting that Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claimed the country was willing to strike a new agreement on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea – a possible stepping stone towards a ceasefire with Ukraine – but only if the United States ordered President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to respect it.

Each side criticised the other over the collapse in 2023 of an earlier agreement intended to ensure the safety of merchant shipping in the Black Sea after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022, Reuters said.

“We will need clear guarantees. And given the sad experience of agreements with just Kyiv, the guarantees can only be the result of an order from Washington to Zelenskyy and his team to do one thing and not the other,” Lavrov said in televised comments.

Reuters noted that Lavrov’s comments indicated that Russia will demand a further tightening of US pressure on Zelenskyy before it will agree to a maritime ceasefire, which Washington says would be an important step towards a more comprehensive truce.

In his regular update last night, Zelenskyy said that “Russia remains the only actor dragging this war out, jeering at both our people and the global community,” as he called for “strong actions” to “push Russia toward peace.”

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Elsewhere, the new German parliament is set to meet for the first time today, with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) the strongest opposition faction.

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My colleague Ajit Niranjan put together this brilliant explainer on what to expect from the new Bundestag, elected last month.

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\n

The 630 members of the Bundestag, 230 of whom are newly elected, will sit in parliament at a unique time in postwar German history. The AfD has doubled its number of seats to 152, while centrist parties are overhauling the country’s military and fiscal policy in response to rising threats to European security.

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The MPs taking seats on Tuesday range in age from 23 to 84. The youngest is Luke Hoss, a student from the far-left Die Linke who has promised to give away most of his €11,000-a-month salary. The oldest is Alexander Gauland, a former journalist from the AfD who in 2018 downplayed Hitler and the Nazis as “just birdshit in our more than 1,000-year history”.

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The new parliament contains about 100 fewer MPs than the previous one after the outgoing government reformed Germany’s electoral law to shrink persistent bloat. Fewer than a third of MPs in the new Bundestag are women, slightly below the share in the previous legislature.

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Tense coalition talks are under way between the CDU/CSU, the largest faction in parliament, and the Social Democratic party (SPD). The chancellor-in-waiting, Merz, hopes to form a government before Easter.

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The sitting starts at 11am CET, with a speech from Gregor Gysi, the longest-serving member of parliament, who began his political career in the Socialist Unity party in communist East Germany.

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The 77-year-old will be free to decide the length and content of his speech, and will chair the session until the president of the Bundestag is elected.

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We are now hearing more from the Kremlin, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offering an update on the talks.

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He has just said that Russia and the US are analysing the outcome of the talks before considering next steps as delegations reported back to their capitals, but – contrary to expectations – said the content of the discussions would not be published, Reuters reported.

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Peskov added there were currently no plans for a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

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handout still image taken from handout video provided by the Russian Foreign ministry press-service shows Russian delegation, adviser to the head of FSB Sergey Beseda (L) and senator and former diplomat Grigory Karasin (C), leave the Ritz-Carlton hotel, after talks between Russia and the US in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.”,”caption”:”A handout still image taken from handout video provided by the Russian Foreign ministry press-service shows Russian delegation, adviser to the head of FSB Sergey Beseda (L) and senator and former diplomat Grigory Karasin (C), leave the Ritz-Carlton hotel, after talks between Russia and the US in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service Handout/EPA”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

If you are wondering where we are with US-led “shuttle diplomacy” on Ukraine, the latest update this morning said that Ukrainian and US officials were holding another round of talks this morning.

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“We are still working with the Americans,” a member of the Ukrainian delegation told a small group of media including AFP.

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This comes, as AFP noted, a day after 12 hours of talks between the US and Russian delegations on a partial ceasefire in Ukraine.

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Russian media reported that a draft joint US-Russian statement had been sent to Moscow and Washington for approval, with the parties aiming to release it on Tuesday.

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If Europe wasn’t already on notice, the extraordinary leak of deliberations by JD Vance and other top-level Trump administration officials over a strike against the Houthis in Yemen was another sign that it has a target on its back.

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On the face of it, the strike against the Houthis had far more to do with the administration’s policies on protecting maritime trade and containing Iran than its concerns about Europe freeloading on US defense spending and military prowess.

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But Vance appears determined to push that angle as a reason to postpone the strike.

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Vance was contending that once again the United States is doing what Europe should be. It is consistent with his past arguments that the US is overpaying for European security and the derision he displayed toward European allies (almost certainly the UK and France) when he described them as “some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years”. (Both fought in Afghanistan and the UK fought alongside the US in Iraq).

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Then Vance went a step further. He tacitly admitted a difference between his foreign policy and Trump’s saying that the strike would undermine the president’s Europe policy – one that has been led by Vance in his divisive speech at the Munich Security Conference where he accused European leaders of running from their own electorates and of his Eurosceptic comments on Fox News.

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“I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now,” Vance wrote. “There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.”

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At heart, the disagreement indicated that Vance’s views of foreign policy are not quite aligned with Trump. Trump broadly sees the world as transactional and optimists in Europe have claimed he could force a positive outcome by forcing those nations to spend more on defense budgets. But Vance appears far more confrontational and principled in his antipathy toward the transatlantic alliance, and has attacked European leaders for backing values that he says are not aligned with the US.

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That makes Vance even more of a concern for Europe. Kaja Kallas, the European foreign policy chief, accused Vance of “trying to pick a fight” with European allies. Another European diplomat said: “He is very dangerous for Europe … maybe the most [dangerous] in the administration.” Another said he was “obsessed” with driving a wedge between Europe and the US.

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Broadly, the administration’s policies on Europe are coming into focus. And there are few stepping up to voice backing for Nato or for Europe writ large. On a podcast interview this weekend, the senior Trump envoy Steve Witkoff mused about the potential for the Gulf economies to replace those of Europe. “It could be much bigger than Europe. Europe is dysfunctional today,” he said.

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Tucker Carlson, the host and another Trump confidant, agreed. “It would be good for the world because Europe is dying,” he said.

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Look, we have all been there. Now and then, you get added to the wrong group on a messaging app (usually some spam), check your suspicions, leave it, and forget it.

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It’s not quite the same, however, if you get added to a top-secret operational group by the US national security adviser alongside some of the most senior US administration officials, up to the level of the actual US vice-president, where they discuss strikes on another country on a commercial chat app.

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Europe wakes up with astonishment to reports in the Atlantic – and the authenticity of the group confirmed by the White House – that “The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans” on strikes against the Huthis in Yemen.

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There is a lot to be said about the foreign policy, intelligence implications of this highly-sensitive security leak, and we have key US reactions for you here.

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However, one other thing that stands out in the texts revealed by the Atlantic is genuine and visceral resentment against Europe among top US officials.

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JD Vance, of the Munich speech fame, says how much he hates “bailing Europe again,” arguing that the strike and the unblocking of routes would benefit Europe most.

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US defence secretary Pete Hegseth joins in along similar lines: “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”

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Other officials discuss how they could claim the costs of the strike back from Europe, with “further economic gain extracted in return.”

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The leak raises major questions about the safety of sharing intelligence with the US, how it’s handled, and who has access to sensitive information.

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Allies will also no doubt take note of the fact that the group appears to have been created just as US envoy Steve Witkoff may have been, erm, literally at the Kremlin holding talks with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. This prompts further concerns. I’m sure the Kremlin wifi has strong privacy protections, right?

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The breach comes at a particularly sensitive time as Europe waits to learn what has come out of US talks with Russia in Riyadh, so we are unlikely to hear many public reactions to these comments from seething Europeans. (But, by all means, add me to your secret groups and let me know what you think, European diplomats!).

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But first reactions from some of former leaders and diplomats give you an idea of what they may think.

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Former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt noted that “in the amazing story of the Signal group coordinating Yemen air strikes, Vice President JD Vance once again comes out as driven by deep anti-European resentment.”

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Former Polish ambassador to the US Marek Magierowski described the report simply as “chilling.” On Witkoff, he added: “Le Carré, Forsyth and Clancy together would not have come up with such an absurd scenario.”

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It’s a long day ahead for us as we await update on US-Russia talks, and with the first sitting of the new German parliament, so let’s get going.

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It’s Tuesday, 25 March 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.

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Good morning.

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