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Trump returns to White House amid weak polls ahead of midterms
Donald Trump is returning from the campaign trail to Washington DC this morning amid weak polls that could point to trouble for the Republican Party in the midterm elections.
Trump, who campaigned for Republicans in Arizona and Montana on Wednesday, recently reached a record low approval rating of 32% amid voter frustration about the continued the Iran war and rising US prices.
According to an exclusive new poll for the Guardian, voting groups that are key to winning votes in the midterms – including independents, rural voters and even some Republicans – are increasingly disenchanted with the economy. Three in four Americans are now concerned about the potential for a recession.
In another poll conducted by the Associated Press, about 8 in 10 voters overall say the economy or the cost of living is among their top issues for the upcoming election, while about two-thirds say this about healthcare and the war in Iran. Other issues that are stronger for Trump – like immigration or crime – are lower priorities.
Key events
While Trump is in DC today, vice-president JD Vance will be in Monroe, Michigan, for a rally in support of Mike Rogers, the former Republican congressman vying to flip the open Senate seat against progressive Democrat, Abdul El-Sayed.
After back to back rallies in Arizona and Montana, Donald Trump’s day in Washington will consist of closed-door meetings, a private Rose Garden lunch and two tele- rallies. None of his scheduled events today are open to the press, but we’ll let you know if anything changes.
Tomorrow, the president will be back on the trail to campaign in Dalton, Georgia.
Key US voters say economy is getting worse ahead of midterms, new Harris poll finds
Lauren Aratani
The majority of those surveyed were pessimistic about the economy, with three quarters of Americans saying they are concerned about a recession while 61% wrongly believe that the US is already experiencing one. By its typical definition, the US is not currently experiencing a recession.
The poll shows growing weariness across the political spectrum over high prices.
Republicans, fighting to keep control of Congress, are losing support with independent voters, who are expected to be the deciding factor in key swing races. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of independents said the economy is worse, up from 48% who said the same in September 2024 in the heat of the 2024 presidential election.
Even within the Republican ranks, optimism has waned. In February 2025, just a few weeks after Trump was inaugurated, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By February 2026, just before the US launched attacks against Iran, that optimism was up to 49%. In the latest poll, just 28% of Republicans said the economy is getting better.
In the new poll, a vast majority of Americans agreed that there is an affordability crisis, including 96% of Republicans. But Americans still remain divided over who has a solution.
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Democrats (71%) were more likely than Republicans (59%) to say that their own party had a solution.
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Republicans were more likely (26%) to say neither party has a solution compared with Democrats (17%)
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Half of independents said neither party has a solution, while 14% sided with Democrats and 10% with Republicans.
Trump returns to White House amid weak polls ahead of midterms
Donald Trump is returning from the campaign trail to Washington DC this morning amid weak polls that could point to trouble for the Republican Party in the midterm elections.
Trump, who campaigned for Republicans in Arizona and Montana on Wednesday, recently reached a record low approval rating of 32% amid voter frustration about the continued the Iran war and rising US prices.
According to an exclusive new poll for the Guardian, voting groups that are key to winning votes in the midterms – including independents, rural voters and even some Republicans – are increasingly disenchanted with the economy. Three in four Americans are now concerned about the potential for a recession.
In another poll conducted by the Associated Press, about 8 in 10 voters overall say the economy or the cost of living is among their top issues for the upcoming election, while about two-thirds say this about healthcare and the war in Iran. Other issues that are stronger for Trump – like immigration or crime – are lower priorities.
US voters overwhelmingly want change in Washington, new poll finds
A strong majority of voters believe president Donald Trump is falling short at home and abroad, and they want significant change in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new AP-NORC poll.
The survey, which was conducted less than four weeks before Election Day, finds that registered voters who identify as Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republican voters about casting a ballot.
More voters want Democrats to win control of Congress and have a more negative view of Republicans.
The poll’s findings paint a difficult picture for Republicans, who are clinging to control of Congress under the weight of an unpopular war with Iran and surging prices in the US.
About 8 in 10 voters overall say the economy or the cost of living is among their top issues for the upcoming election, while about two-thirds say this about healthcare and the war in Iran. Other issues that are stronger for Trump — like immigration or crime — are lower priorities.
By Ariana Baio and Uwa Ede-Osifo
James Talarico, the Texas Democratic nominee for Senate, sat face to face with several undecided voters who grilled him on a slew of contentious issues including Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, abortion and foreign aid, during a CNN town hall on Wednesday evening.
Jodi Hunt, a self-described single-issue voter, probed Talarico’s pro-choice stance, asking: “How would you convince me as a Catholic voter that I can trust you would protect the most innocent among us?”
Talarico described the Bible as being silent on abortion, to which Hunt countered quoting “Thou shalt not kill”.
“We may have different, moral conclusions when it comes to this particular ethical question, but we actually have the same public policy goal,” Talarico said, framing abortion as a public health issue that could be solved with a reduction in unplanned pregnancies.
During the night, Talarico cast himself as a moderate, who would put the needs of Texans over party allegiances. He railed against the ultra-wealthy, framing them as the common enemy.
Turning to James Talarico, the Democratic candidate fighting for a Texas US Senate seat might not have sparred with his Republican rival Ken Paxton last night but that doesn’t mean he was spared from attacks.
At a rally in Texas on Wednesday, JD Vance responded to an audience member who shouted his praise by responding: “I love you too sir.” He then added: “In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I’m the vice president, not James Talarico.”
It’s part of the Republican strategy to cast doubt down on Talarico’s Texan credentials and whether he’s “man enough,” according to the New York Times.
Recent polls have shown that the Democratic candidate is leading against his Republican counterpart.
Meanwhile Paxton, who declined an invitation to meet voters with Talarico last night, has focused his efforts in an ad blitz. Already more than $500m has been spent on television ads for the Texas race, according to CNN.
Andrew Roth
The White House’s unilateral effort to negotiate an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has collapsed as Moscow sent a record swarm of drones overnight to attack infrastructure in central Ukraine and Kyiv appeared to resume strikes on Russian oil refineries – despite warnings from Donald Trump.
Moscow accused Ukraine of launching its first strike against a Russian oil refinery in the Ryazan region since Trump abruptly declared an “energy ceasefire” that neither Russia nor Ukraine said they had agreed to. Trump has demanded that Volodymyr Zelenskyy stop attacking Russian oil refineries, claiming that it was the cause of a global rise in the price of diesel fuel.
Zelenskyy said on Wednesday that he would resume strikes on Russian oil refineries after halting those attacks to show that Ukraine was ready for peace talks. “The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We’re done,” he told the Financial Times. He also attacked the gap in US intelligence sharing as “dangerous”.
Images from Ryazan showed flames at the refinery, which regional officials said had been targeted by 69 drones and four Flamingo cruise missiles. Debris from a drone struck by anti-aircraft fire had hit the refinery and sparked the fire, the ministry claimed.
In Ukraine, more than 360 Russian drones targeted Kirovohrad, a central region that has been hit less hard than others closer to Russia, in attacks that killed three and injured six.
Donald Trump claims Iran war ‘will end very soon’
US president Donald Trump claimed the Iran war “will end very soon,” as voters consider their options ahead of midterm elections that are taking place amid economic uncertainty and ongoing global conflict.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday evening, Trump said: “The Iran war will end very soon. It’s going to end very soon, as soon as I want it to end, it’ll end.” He added that Iran would “never have a nuclear weapon” and that oil prices would “drop like a rock”.
The US president has in recent weeks attempted to shift focus towards Ukraine, and has suggested that its attack on Russian refineries are responsible for rising fuel prices. His renewed messaging on Iran suggests that the price of daily goods – and gas at the tank – are having an impact at the polls.
Voting groups that are key to winning votes in the midterms are increasingly disenchanted with the economy, according to an exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian. Three in four Americans are now concerned about the potential for a recession.
Elsewhere:
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James Talarico, the Texas Democratic nominee for Senate, faced a grilling from undecided voters on a range of issues from Gaza to his faith at a town hall. Something he emphasized was his aspiration to put residents above party allegiance.
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Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he felt ‘betrayed’ by the US after Ukraine’s military access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite was restricted. The US president has denied that the administration has cut intelligence sharing but Musk suggested on X that the US government was behind the restrictions.
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Trump’s new press secretary Katie Zacharia is facing scrutiny over her claims that she’s a lawyer. Zacharia has clarified some of the questions but the big one remains: has she ever passed the bar?
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