More than 860,000 without power

Isaias has left more than 860,000 people without electricity as it moves inland across the south-east.

Here’s the latest breakdown of the worst affected states, according to poweroutage.us:

Florida: 436,745

Alabama: 316,366

Georgia: 87,334

Washington: 6,550

California: 4,467

Texas: 4,404

Ohio: 3,827

Idaho: 1,549

People look out the window of a dark hotel lobby.
People look at wind, rain, and flying debris from a hotel lobby in Pensacola, Florida, during a power outage ahead of the arrival of hurricane Isaias. Photograph: Marco Bello/Reuters
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Key events

David Hambling

David Hambling

One significant effect of the stronger El Niño is fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic. In the 30 years to 2020, on average the first hurricane arrived by 11 August, the second by 26 August and the third by 7 September.

Isaias’s October arrival marks a stark contrast from this trend.

At the start of the season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a quiet year, anticipating between three and six hurricanes, well below the average of seven. The August forecast cut the expected number to between two and six. Until this year, the latest date for the first Atlantic hurricane was 11 September, in 2002 and 2013.

El Niño is marked by comparatively warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and a weakening of the seasonal trade winds. One side-effect is that it increases wind shear – the change in wind speed with height – over the Atlantic. This makes it less likely for tropical storms to evolve into hurricanes, as these require relatively stable air to form over a wide area.

But while things have been mostly quiet on the Atlantic side of the Americas, the eastern Pacific has seen plenty of activity, with 10 hurricanes so far.

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