How did trade and economic activity evolve at the End of Antiquity, when political power shifts away from the Mediterranean towards the Middle East and northern Europe? No records of ancient production, consumption, and trade exist. Yet the composition of coin finds reveals information about monetized transactions, as coins gradually diffused along trade routes. To recover trade and consumption time series, we assemble a database of half a million ancient coins from the fourth to the tenth century and estimate a dynamic model of trade and money. Our estimates suggest that: Mediterranean trade was disrupted by the newly formed border between Islam and Christianity; economic activity shifts away from the Mediterranean starting in the sixth century; real consumption peaks in the Middle East in the eighth century; and by the end of the ninth century, Islamic Spain and Frankish northwestern Europe are the wealthiest regions of the ancient western world.

Recently published in Econometrica, by Johannes Boehm.

The post Trade and the end of antiquity, or did Islam serve to deglobalize the world? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

#Trade #antiquity #Islam #serve #deglobalize #world